Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre has released the 2025 Manitoba Basins Fall Conditions Report, which provides an assessment of hydrologic conditions at the time of freeze-up for forecasting spring run-off.
The report summarizes soil moisture conditions, river flows and lake level conditions, as well as an overview of long-range weather predictions heading into winter and spring.
Most Manitoba basins received below to well-below normal precipitation from May to October, while parts of southern Manitoba and the U.S. portions of the Red River basin and Souris River basin received normal to above-normal amounts.
Soil moisture at freeze-up was near normal to above normal for parts of southern Manitoba and the U.S. portions of the Red River and Souris River basins. Record-low spring and summer precipitation in parts of the Interlake region, eastern Manitoba and northern Manitoba has contributed to drought-like conditions in these areas.
The report also includes a long-term precipitation outlook and projected river flows and lake levels across Manitoba basins:
• Global weather prediction centres indicate a weak La Niña climate conditions are expected to continue to early winter, with a transition toward neutral conditions from January to March.
• For Manitoba, La Niña weather patterns typically result in below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation from December through March.
• Most southern Manitoba rivers are near normal for this time of year, while most northern rivers remain below normal.
• Flows on the Red River and Assiniboine River are near normal for this time of year. Flows are below normal on the Saskatchewan River, and well-below normal on the Winnipeg and Churchill rivers.
• Most Manitoba lakes are at normal to below-normal levels and remain within their respective operating ranges.
• Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba are well-below normal and Lake Winnipegosis is below normal for this time of year.
The near-normal to below-normal soil moisture conditions and near-normal to below-normal river levels indicate a potential for near-normal to below-normal spring run-off in most Manitoba basins. However, the extent of spring run-off is largely dependent on precipitation throughout the winter and spring and snowmelt conditions.
A more detailed spring flood outlook is planned to be released in February 2026.
To read the 2025 Manitoba Basins Fall Conditions Report, head to gov.mb.ca/floodinfo/pdf/2025/2025_fall_conditions_report.pdf.
