The Province of Manitoba is forecasting a low-to-moderate risk of spring flooding across most of the province as runoff season approaches, though higher risk remains in parts of the Interlake.
According to Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre, the majority of Manitoba rivers are expected to see limited flooding under normal conditions. However, the Fisher River basin is facing a moderate to major flood risk, making it the primary area of concern heading into the spring melt.
A moderate risk of flooding is also in place for several major waterways, including the Red, Assiniboine and Souris rivers, along with the Icelandic River in the Interlake and portions of the Saskatchewan River in northern Manitoba.
Flood risk remains low for many tributaries, including the Pembina, Rat and Roseau rivers, as well as eastern Manitoba’s Winnipeg River basin and the Whiteshell Lakes area.
Officials note that conditions leading into spring have generally been favourable. Soil moisture at freeze-up was near to below normal across much of Manitoba, while winter precipitation was also near to below normal in many regions. In addition, frost depths are normal to shallower than usual, allowing for improved absorption of meltwater.
Snowpack conditions are also contributing to the relatively stable outlook. Snow-water content across most Manitoba basins is within normal ranges, though parts of southern Manitoba are below average. The Fisher River basin, however, has normal to above-normal snow levels, contributing to its elevated flood risk.
Lake levels across the province remain within operating ranges, with Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba sitting well below normal for this time of year. As a result, inflows into major lakes are expected to be below seasonal averages.
The province does not anticipate operating the Red River Floodway under normal or favourable conditions. However, it may be used if weather conditions worsen to help reduce water levels in Winnipeg. The Portage Diversion could also be activated under unfavourable conditions or to address potential ice jams along the lower Assiniboine River.
Ice-cutting and breaking activities have already been completed on the Red and Icelandic rivers to reduce the risk of ice-jam flooding. Despite these efforts, officials caution that ice-jam flooding remains possible in historically affected areas, including along the Saskatchewan, Carrot, Swan, Icelandic and Fisher rivers.
The province emphasized that weather conditions in the coming weeks will be the key factor in determining how the spring flood season unfolds. Additional snowfall, rainfall and the speed of the melt could all significantly influence water levels.
As temperatures rise and ice conditions weaken, Manitobans are being reminded to stay off rivers, retention ponds and other waterways.
The Manitoba Emergency Management Organization says it continues to work with municipalities, First Nations and other partners to prepare for potential flooding, including reviewing emergency plans and coordinating resources.
The full March flood outlook report is available on the provincial government website.
