An increased risk of spring flooding is taking shape across Manitoba’s Interlake, with provincial forecasters warning that above-normal snowpack and a delayed melt could lead to significant runoff in the weeks ahead.
Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre released an updated 2026 spring flood outlook, identifying the Interlake — including the Icelandic River and Fisher River basin — as an area of elevated concern. The Parkland region is also facing a heightened risk of overland flooding, while conditions elsewhere in the province remain moderate to low.
Officials say the elevated risk stems from a combination of factors, including significantly above-average snowpack, cooler temperatures that have slowed the onset of melting, and the potential for rapid runoff if conditions change quickly.
Recent snow surveys show the snow water equivalent in the Fisher River basin is among the highest recorded in recent years. Levels are currently sitting at approximately 113 millimetres — nearly double the long-term average — and comparable to amounts seen during past flood years.
With temperatures expected to hover near the freezing mark through mid-April, the spring melt is being delayed. However, that delay could increase the risk of a fast, concentrated runoff period once warmer weather arrives.
Flood risk in the Fisher River basin remains high, with the potential for peak flows similar to the 2014 spring flood. In a faster melt scenario, water levels could approach those seen during the 2022 flood, which were roughly two feet higher.
In response, the province has begun mobilizing resources to vulnerable communities. Tens of thousands of sandbags are being delivered to Peguis First Nation and nearby areas, while provincial volunteers are already working with local residents to prepare flood protection measures.
The Icelandic River is also now considered at high risk of flooding following recent snowfall and the likelihood of a delayed runoff. Ice-jam flooding remains a concern along the river, as in previous years.
In the Parkland region, warming temperatures expected to exceed 10 C in the coming days could trigger overland flooding. This type of flooding typically occurs when rapid snowmelt overwhelms frozen or blocked drainage systems such as ditches and culverts.
Elsewhere in Manitoba, the flood outlook remains largely unchanged from March. Moderate risk continues along parts of the Red, Assiniboine, Souris, Saskatchewan and Carrot rivers, while low flood potential is forecast for tributaries of the Red and Assiniboine rivers and much of eastern Manitoba, including the Winnipeg River basin.
Provincial officials note that spring flood conditions can shift quickly, particularly if warm weather or rainfall accelerates melting over a short period.
The Hydrologic Forecast Centre will continue to monitor conditions and provide updates as the spring runoff approaches. Residents, particularly those in low-lying or flood-prone areas, are encouraged to stay informed and be prepared.
The Manitoba Emergency Management Organization is also working with municipalities, First Nations and emergency partners to review plans, share information and ensure resources are in place to respond if flooding occurs.
