GrainFox delivered its annual grain market outlook and announced a new artificial intelligence tool during its Bin to Bank webinar on Nov. 19.
GrainFox chief market analyst Neil Townsend and AgResource Company founder and president Dan Basse outlined the top 10 variables expected to influence grain markets in the year ahead, citing global supply and demand, geopolitics, weather volatility and trade relations as key drivers.
GrainFox’s Variable Countdown
10 – Breakout candidates (barley, oats and durum):
Townsend said tightening global supply and increased offshore market activity are creating renewed interest in several crops. Canada’s durum crop was described as “representative,” making transactions easier, while oats emerged as the strongest breakout candidate due to U.S. market dynamics and trade relationships.
“If I had to pick one of the three in terms of having a bit of an uprise from here, it would be oats,” Townsend said.
9 – Black Sea war and export potential:
Basse said worsening conditions in the region continue to threaten export infrastructure, raising concerns similar to those seen in 2021. While wheat remains oversupplied, he expects global availability to gradually decline into next year if disruptions persist.
8 – India’s pulse supply:
Townsend said India’s domestic supply situation does not currently support higher prices, which could result in stricter import policies. He noted this poses challenges for Canada, adding he does not see conditions that would create a major upswing in pulse prices.
7 – South American weather:
Basse said favourable weather is currently supporting corn and soybean planting, particularly in Brazil. If conditions hold into early January, Brazil could plant a 180-million-tonne soybean crop, though weather risks remain a constant concern.
6 – Macroeconomics:
Townsend said inflation pressures following the pandemic have created affordability challenges, though agriculture has performed relatively well compared to other sectors. He cautioned, however, that economic uncertainty continues, with recession fears frequently resurfacing.
5 – U.S. exports and balance sheets:
Basse said U.S. farmers produced a corn crop comparable in size to the combined corn and soybean output of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. He expects export demand to remain strong, with end stocks for corn, soybeans and wheat remaining ample.
4 – Demand:
Townsend said demand for Canadian wheat is solid but lacks the growth momentum seen in previous years, particularly with limited expansion in biofuel initiatives.
“It’s not that demand’s poor, it’s just that it doesn’t have that built-in dynamic growth that it had for many years,” he said.
3 – U.S.–China relations:
Basse described the relationship as an ongoing economic conflict, particularly around soybeans, and said the global ag trade landscape is becoming increasingly fragmented as countries align with competing power centres.
2 – Canada–China relations:
Townsend said unresolved trade disputes, including restrictions on Canadian canola, continue to slow negotiations. He added that the lack of perceived equality between the two countries complicates efforts to restore full market access.
1 – Donald Trump:
Basse said former U.S. president Donald Trump remains the biggest wildcard in global markets due to uncertainty around tariffs, trade policy and political influence.
“I have not been at an ag conference this year that didn’t bring up President Trump as being the big unknown,” he said.
GrainFox also announced the launch of Sinoa, an AI-powered grain market assistant it describes as a major AgTech advancement heading into 2026.
“Sinoa is a major leap forward for AI-powered ag intelligence,” said Mark Lepp, CEO and founder of GrainFox. “This isn’t just a chatbot — it’s an AI grain market analyst built for real-world decision-makers.”
According to GrainFox, Sinoa draws from more than 20 years of proprietary data, including historical pricing, fundamentals and seasonality, to generate real-time, explainable insights tailored to individual users. Responses are built through live analysis rather than prewritten answers.
“Producers and commercial agribusinesses don’t just get a market summary — they get a deeper, personalized understanding of what that information means for them,” said Richard Surrendrakumar, GrainFox’s chief product officer.
Access to Sinoa requires a GrainFox membership subscription. More information, including a recording of the Bin to Bank webinar, is available through GrainFox’s website and social media channels.
