Although Manitobans struggled with inflation and the arrival of higher mortgage rates in 2023, the real estate market in the Interlake remained relatively stable and is expected to follow suit this year.
Kim Giesbrecht, owner of Gimli-based Right Choice Realty, said Manitoba is somewhat immune to extreme housing price fluctuations that some of Canada’s biggest cities typically experience.
“The relative stability we saw last year speaks to the steadiness of our market in Manitoba. We don’t experience the real estate market highs and the lows as much as big cities such as Vancouver or Toronto do. Manitoba generally tends to hold steady,” she said. “We did definitely see an increase in housing prices during COVID and an increased demand for property, but prices are definitely holding steady.”
Giesbrecht crunched the numbers from 2023 to provide a snapshot of the Interlake region, which for the purposes of her analysis runs from Clandeboye to Hecla in the eastern half of the region and from the northern border of the RM of Rosser to Ashern in the western half of the region, as well as all the communities in between including Stonewall, Arborg and Fisher Branch.
In the residential detached homes category (excluding condominiums, duplexes and side-by-sides), Giesbrecht said the number of sales in 2022 were higher than they were last year.
There were 363 sales in 2022 and 325 sales in 2023, roughly a 10 per cent decline. But at the same time, the average sale price for homes in that category increased from $272,000 to $280,000.
And although there was a provincial property assessment in 2022, Giesbrecht said that generally does not affect housing sale prices as that is determined by the market and factors such as location. Assessment values determine what a homeowner will pay in property taxes.
Digging down further on housing prices in the residential detached category, Giesbrecht said there was a modest increase in sale prices for stock in the mid-$300,000 range.
“Sales decreased by 40 units in 2023 verses 2022 for anything priced up to $349,999. That’s a pretty big number. However, that price range had a modest increase of 1.1 per cent where we saw the average price increasing from $214,289 up to $216,721,” she said. “Residential detached can also include a higher-end winterized cottage. Because we’re looking at areas right up to Ashern, we see smaller rural properties that aren’t priced higher. We’re hard pressed in Gimli, for example, to find a home in the [$200,000] price range. Price is relative to location and the number of people that want to live there and that can either increase or decrease market demand.”
Homes in smaller Interlake rural communities will give people “more bang for their buck,” she added, but the trade-off comes with a lack of proximity to conveniences such as health care facilities, schools and shopping. Properties in Stonewall or lakefront properties will typically be priced higher than homes in remote rural areas.
One of the interesting findings from her analysis was that Interlake properties priced in the $350,000 to $499,000 range saw higher sales numbers in 2023, with 65 units sold compared to 59 units sold in 2022. Units priced $500,000 and over, however, saw a decrease in the number of sales.
She also researched the R26 area – the Winnipeg Real Estate Board designates different areas by numbers and letters – which stretches from roughly Silver Harbour down to Matlock and about three to four miles west of Highway 8. She found that sales numbers decreased last year but, again, increased in sale price.
Prices in six different categories Giesbrecht said she looked at showed no housing price decreases. Overall, prices for homes in the region tended to increase.
Although there were increases in interest rates from the Bank of Canada in 2022 and 2023, Giesbrecht said Interlake sale and price data for housing from 2023 were generally “positive,” meaning there was no substantial impact on the market.
“Real estate is still one of the more stable investments. In Winnipeg, there might be a little more up and down, but in our rural areas there’s generally a slow and steady increase,” said Giesbrecht.
In terms of what people can expect in 2024, Giesbrecht said projections indicate a “slight increase” in the number of sales and prices towards the second half of the year.
There are buyers out there waiting to find the right property. Because there’s a general lack of inventory and fewer properties on the market, buyers have had fewer choices. And that tends to keep demand and pricing steady, she said.
If regulations for short-term rentals (STRs) affect the way some properties are operated – Gimli for instance passed a short-term rental bylaw and an accommodation tax bylaw – Giesbrecht said that could possibly bring those properties to market. Continuing inflation, as well, could mean people have less money to spend on STR vacations.
“I think there might be a slight increase in recreational properties coming to the market in 2024 as people look at their overall financing or think they don’t need a cottage anymore,” she said. “Or if some people who were using cottages and homes for short-term rentals see demand for those dropping, that will open up more inventory.”
Some people may be feeling anxious about higher mortgage rates right now, she said, but the stress test, which applies to federally regulated banks and which requires people to qualify for a mortgage at a higher rate, has actually served as a “buffer” during inflation, allowing many people to hold on to their homes. And historically, mortgage rates went through the roof in the 1980s at around 18 per cent or higher compared to the last decade or so.
“To expect interest rates at two or three per cent to continue forever is unreasonable,” she said. “And even though they’re in the five per cent range right now, in terms of an investment in housing, it’s a reasonable amount to expect to pay,” she said. “I think many people are still having to make adjustments from when they were paying a lower mortgage rate, but they’re still able to afford their home in Manitoba. And I think buyers will still be able to find something they’ll be comfortable in and securing their future.”
For more information about services and properties, contact Right Choice Realty at (204) 641-8450, email: kim@rightchoicerealty.ca or visit the company’s website: rightchoicerealty.ca
