By Voice staff
Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre has updated its spring flood outlook, indicating increased flood risk in the Interlake region including the Icelandic River and Fisher River basin, as well as an elevated risk of overland flooding in the Parkland region. Flood risk remains moderate to low elsewhere in the province
The elevated risk is due to significantly above‑normal snowpack, a delayed spring melt, and an increased likelihood of rapid runoff combined with spring precipitation, the forecast says.
Recent snow surveys indicate snow water equivalent in the Fisher River basin is among the highest observed in recent years. With the recent snowfall, the snow water equivalent is approximately 113 millimetres, nearly double the long‑term average and equal to or greater than levels observed in several past flood years. Temperatures are expected to remain near zero through mid‑April, delaying the start of snowmelt and increasing the potential for a rapid, concentrated spring runoff period once melting begins.
Spring flood risk remains high for the Fisher River basin, with elevated flood potential throughout the basin. Depending on weather conditions, peak flows are expected to reach levels similar to those observed during the 2014 spring flood, but if the melt happens faster, flows could approach levels seen during the 2022 flood, which were about two feet higher than 2014.
Based on the elevated flood risk, the province has arranged for tens of thousands of sandbags to be delivered to Peguis First Nation and surrounding communities. In addition, provincial volunteers have been mobilized and are working with the community to begin preparations to protect homes at risk.
The Icelandic River forecast has been updated to a high risk of flooding due to the recent snowfall and anticipated late spring runoff. As in previous years, ice‑jam related flooding remains a concern along the river.
In the Parkland region, there is an elevated risk of overland flooding as temperatures are expected to rise above 10 C in the coming days. Overland flooding can occur when rising temperatures trigger rapid snowmelt while ditches, culverts and drainage channels remain partially frozen or obstructed.
Outside the Interlake and Parkland regions, the flood outlook remains largely unchanged from March. Moderate flood risk continues along portions of the Red, Assiniboine, Souris, Saskatchewan and Carrot rivers, while low flood risk is expected for tributaries of the Red and Assiniboine rivers and for much of eastern Manitoba, including the Winnipeg River basin.
