By Staff
The province is anticipating there will only be a low to moderate risk for spring flooding across Manitoba.
Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre last week released its spring flood outlook, and there is no high risk for flooding right now although of course it remains largely dependent on weather conditions from now through the melt period ,including additional snowfall and spring rainfall as well as the snowmelt’s timing and rate.
It is currently believed there is a moderate risk of flooding for the Red, Pembina, Assiniboine, Souris and Qu’Appelle rivers as well as the Interlake region including the Icelandic and Fisher rivers and portions of the Saskatchewan River in northern Manitoba.
There is a low flood risk for the Red and Assiniboine river tributaries including the Rat and Roseau rivers. Eastern Manitoba, including the Winnipeg River basin and Whiteshell lakes area. Most Manitoba lakes are expected to remain within desired operating ranges after spring runoff and the risk of flooding along Manitoba lakes is low.
Soil moisture at freeze-up was near normal to below normal across most of Manitoba, and winter precipitation has ranged from near normal to below normal in many regions, while soil frost depths are generally shallower than normal, allowing greater infiltration of meltwater.
Snow accumulations are also generally within the normal range except for parts of southern Manitoba where snow accumulation remains below typical values for this time of year.
Lake levels across the province are within operating ranges. Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba are well-below normal for this time of year, and inflows into most major lakes are expected to be below seasonal normals, reflecting generally drier-than-normal conditions across contributing river basins.
The Red River Floodway is not expected to be operated under normal or favourable weather conditions but may be operated under unfavourable conditions to reduce water levels within Winnipeg. The Portage Diversion may be operated under unfavourable weather conditions or to mitigate ice-jamming on the lower Assiniboine River. The Shellmouth Reservoir is being operated in consultation with the Shellmouth Liaison Committee to reduce downstream flood risk while maintaining water supply and recreation objectives.
Ice-cutting and breaking activities are already underway along the Red River to reduce the risk of ice-jam flooding. There is also risk of flooding on other rivers that are historically affected by ice jams including the Saskatchewan, Carrot, Swan, Icelandic and Fisher rivers.
Ice conditions and spring weather will play a key role in determining breakup timing and localized flood potential, the province notes.
As temperatures warm and ice strength deteriorates, Manitobans are reminded to stay off waterways, rivers and retention ponds.
An updated flood outlook is expected to be released in late March.
