Manitobans may be getting pampered with holidays during the country’s multiple affordability crises, but they’re in for sticker shock in 2025 when the cost of food – real food such as fruits, vegetables, seafood, meat and diary products – is expected to rise by three to five per cent across the board.
Although Manitobans are enjoying a temporary provincial gas tax holiday, which is set to expire Jan. 1 2025, and are expected to enjoy a five per cent tax break on a number of items including ultra-processed food under a temporary federal GST/HST tax holiday, there’s no healthy food holiday on the horizon.
The disappointing news was delivered last week in Canada’s Food Price Report 2025, which was put together by researchers from Dalhousie University, the University of British Columbia, the University of Guelph and the University of Saskatchewan.
The annual report predicts changes in food prices using a combination of machine learning, AI (artificial intelligence) models and human experts.
Last year, the report predicted an overall price increase of 2.5 to 4.5 per cent for 2024 and was within its predicted range when comparing prices to data released by Statistics Canada. A family of four in 2024 was projected to spend $16,297.20 and the demographic was found to have spent $16,032.07, which is well within the predicted range of the report.
For 2025, the report predicts consumers will see a total overall increase in food prices of 3 to 5 per cent.
“Looking ahead to 2025, we are expecting a family of four with the same demographic makeup to spend $16,833.67, an increase of up to $801.56 from last year,” states the report.
Broken down by food category, dairy is expected to increase 2 to 4 per cent, fruit 1 to 3 per cent, vegetables 3 to 5 per cent, meat 4 to 6 per cent, seafood 1 to 3 per cent and bakery 2 to 4 per cent. Restaurant prices are also anticipated to increase 3 to 5 per cent.
The report provides predictions on estimated annual food expenditures for individuals based on their age and gender to allow people to “predict their annual food expenditures” based on whether they live on their own, are single parents or live in a multigenerational household.
A four-person household consisting of a man, woman, boy and girl, for example, is predicted to spend $16,833.67 on food in 2025. A two-person household consisting of a man and woman between 51 and 70 years of age is expected to spend $7,969.78. And a two-person household consisting of a man and pregnant woman between 19 and 30 years of age is expected to spend $9,020.18.
Although consumers have modified their shopping behaviour by buying discounted food, buying fewer non-essential food items, using cheaper brands and shopping at stores with lower prices, millions have had to turn to food banks for help.
“In addition to money-saving techniques, there is a growing reliance on hunger-relief organizations including food banks,” states the report. “In March 2024 the Food Banks Canada Hunger Count reported there were over 2 million visits to food banks in the country, marking a 6% increase compared to 2023 and a 90% increase compared to 2019. This latest figure marks the highest food bank usage in history.”
In Manitoba, food bank usage has increased by 122 per cent since the COVID pandemic, according to Harvest Manitoba.
The food price report also provides a breakdown by generation (e.g., Boomers, Gen X, Millennials) that has had to access savings or borrow money in order to feed themselves. And studies have found that 28 per cent of Canadians have “resorted to eating less to save money.”
Catalysts driving up the cost of food in 2025 are expected to include the U.S. election [president-elect Donald Trump], climate events such as high temperatures, floods and wildfires, labour disputes and interest rates. The impact of climate change is expected be “very significant” and “very likely.” Geopolitical risks are expected to be “very significant” and “likely.” And inflation is expected to be “significant” and “likely,” according to the report.
Although the federal government has tried to stabilize food prices by meeting in 2023 with the leaders of Canada’s five largest grocery store chains and with domestic and international food processors, food prices have remained stubbornly high.
Canadians will get a five per cent tax break on ultra-processed food such as candy, chips, ice cream, cakes, muffins, pies, pastries, cookies and brownies – which nutritionists consider unhealthy and which contain chemical additives that carry documented health risks – under the federal government’s GST/HST holiday, but the measure will end in February and will not help people access healthy food.
